Weekly Stock Market Snapshot
Values at 08-February-2025
The Bull/Bear indicator combines analysis of economic and financial markets into a single, quantifiable measure of market sentiment, indicating bullish or bearish conditions. There are five groups of indicators with ten individual components:
- Yield Curve/Continued Claims
- Yield curve/S&P 500
- Fed Funds Rate/Financial Conditions/Coincident/S&P 500
- Cyclical Employment
- Heavy Truck Sales
Stock Pricing indicates whether stock prices are high or low relative to sales, earnings and economic output. High readings warn of market risk, while low values indicate potential opportunity.
The indicator compares five key valuation metrics to their long-term history and calculates an average z-score, expressed in standard deviations from the mean, which is then converted to a percentile.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.