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Momentum strategies for DIY investors
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S&P 500 advance
By Colin Twiggs
March 10th, 2014 4:00 am ET (7:00 pm AEDT)
Research & Investment: Performance update
Our ASX200 Prime Momentum strategy returned +39.20%* for the 12 months ended 28th February 2014, outperforming the benchmark ASX200 Accumulation Index by +28.56%.
The S&P 500 strategy has only been running since November 2013, but returned 9.35%* for the four months, outperforming the S&P 500 Total Return Index by 2.68%.
* Results are unaudited and subject to revision.
S&P 500 advance
The S&P 500 found support at 1850, signaling an advance to 1950*. Repeated troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong long-term buying pressure
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15 continues to reflect low market risk typical of a bull market.
The Nasdaq 100 respected support at 3600, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Failure of support would warn of another correction. Follow-through above 3700, however, would offer a target of 3800*.
* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 - 3400 ) = 3800
Bellwether Transport stock Fedex found support at $130 on the monthly chart. Breakout above $145 would offer a target of $170*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. A bullish sign for the broader economy. Reversal below $130 is unlikely, but would warn of a decline to $120.
* Target calculation: 145 + ( 145 - 120 ) = 170
I never try to predict or anticipate. I only try to react to what the market is telling me by its behavior.
~ Jesse Livermore