I toss a coin and heads turns up five times in a row.
Which side is more likely to turn up the next time?
- Heads? Five heads in a row is a pattern - the trend is likely to continue.
- Tails? Six heads in a row is unusual so tails is more likely.
The above answers are examples of gambler's logic — the perception of patterns in random data.
which is the correct answer?
Neither - every coin toss has an even chance of turning up heads or tails. It never varies.