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    July 14, 2005
    This newsletter is for educational purposes only and subject to Incredible Charts Terms of Use.


    This is a follow-on from my last article on trend-following systems.



    Selecting a Long-Term Moving Average

    When tracking the primary trend you are faced with a wide choice of moving averages. You can either copy someone else's, and hope that they have made an informed choice, or you can base your selection on the criteria below.

      Time Period
    Use a moving average that is roughly half the length of the cycle that you are tracking. If the peak-to-peak cycle length is roughly 60 days then a 120 day MA is appropriate. Cycle lengths do vary so you will probably be left with a choice of several different time periods. Plot a range of MAs against the price history of the chart and compare the results; then opt for the best fit.


      Type of Moving Average
    You have a choice of three types of moving average on Incredible Charts. What are the differences?
    For a detailed explanation as to how each MA type is constructed, see Moving Average Construction.
    Each type of MA has different characteristics:
    • Simple moving averages have a tendency to bark twice: giving one signal when data outside the normal range is added and the opposite signal when the same data is dropped from the moving average calculation (at the end of the time period). They should be avoided for this reason.
    • You can also see, on the chart above, that the weighted MA is more responsive than the exponential MA: climbing higher and faster than the EMA during strong up-trends; falling faster and further during down-trends; and retracing quicker on reversals.
    • On the chart below you can see that there is a significant discrepancy between the 120-day exponential and weighted MAs. The 80-day exponential MA is a closer fit than the 120-day EMA!
    In short, the SMA should be avoided and the weighted MA time period increased (by roughly 50%) when comparing to an exponential MA.


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    Regards,
    Colin Twiggs


    All great things are simple, and many can be expressed in single words: freedom, justice, honor, duty, mercy, hope.

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