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Europe warns of another decline

By Colin Twiggs
November 24th, 2011 4:00 a.m. ET (8:00 p:m AET)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.



Dow Jones Europe Index is headed for a test of the band of support between 200 and 205. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a strong primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would offer a target of 150*.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculations: 205 - ( 260 - 205 ) = 150

Comment

Dollar strength continues

The Dollar Index is headed for a test of resistance at 80. The brief dip below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests a solid primary up-trend. Breakout above 80 would offer a target of 85*.

Dollar Index

* Target calculations: 80 + ( 80 - 75 ) = 85

Gold falters as the dollar strengthens

Spot Gold is headed for another test of the lower trend channel on the weekly chart. Failure of support at $1600 would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend; follow-through below the September low at $1550 would confirm. A fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would also warn of a reversal.

Spot Gold Weekly

Penetration of medium-term support at $1700 on the daily chart of spot gold is not a strong signal, but follow-through below the recent low would indicate a test of primary support at $1600. Failure would offer a target of $1400*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1600 - ( 1800 - 1600 ) = 1400

The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index has been ranging between 500 and 600 for some time. Decline of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests long-term weakness. Reversal below primary support at 500 would signal a primary down-trend — and a negative outlook for gold.

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index

More....

Click here for today's forex updates:

United States of America (USA) (1K)Canada (1K)United Kingdom(Great Britain) (1K)Germany (1K)Switzerland (1K)Japan (1K)South Africa (1K)Australia (1K)New Zealand (1K)


Euro approaches key support
Commodities drag Aussie and Canadian dollar lower
South African rand weakens
Commodities and Crude Oil
EU Sets Out Proposal on Euro-Zone Bonds - WSJ.com
The credit crunch is coming - macrobusiness.com.au
Bovespa disappoints
Singapore Straits Times Index & Indian Sensex
S&P 500 continues to mimic early 2008
German Bond Auction Spurs Worries - WSJ.com
David Cameron: our plan to cut debt is failing - Telegraph
Menzie Chinn - "Solving America's Debt Crisis"
EU Banks Struggle to Attract Deposits - WSJ.com


When national economies suffer a downturn, governments should borrow and spend money to boost economic activity. Part of the proceeds of the resulting economic growth should then be used to repay the debt.

~ John Maynard Keynes (He failed to answer the question: what if there is no "resulting economic growth"?)

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