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     i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 1197
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 28, 2003 - 03:34 pm: |  
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Midge
The opposite is the case ... I take very careful note of what you are saying ... I hang on every word
So far I can not see where you have excluded using charts for predictive purposes, and Snifter's comment that I should work it out for myself does not advance the cause of mutual understanding ....
At this stage I can not see how the words you use represent non-prediction ... if you are using phrases like "very little risk" and "expectation" you have determined a greater probability for the outcome you desire ... that is prediction in my book ...
Since you've conceded that charts are part of your predictive process they clearly have predictive attributes for you ... otherwise you would not enter the trade.
To that extent I have followed Snifter's advice and I have worked out for myself that you are operating predictively even though you claim that you are not.
Perhaps it is just as well that you do not wish to continue discussing your method since it is clear to me that anyone entering a trade must of necessity be making a prediction of some kind, unless they have merely thrown a dart, rolled a dice or tossed a coin.
It is also clear to me that you do not wish, for some deep unstated psychological reason, to concede that you are predicting ... so I will leave you to your predictive use of charts and mathematics undisturbed ...
With Best Wishes
Claudius
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midge
Member
Username: midge
Post Number: 223
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 28, 2003 - 03:37 pm: |
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Your lack of understanding is noted.
Cheers
MidGe
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 1198
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 28, 2003 - 03:38 pm: |
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To Others (not Midge)
Does the CSL chart shown above have predictive attributes?
If no, why not?
If yes, why?
Claudius Curious (a believer in predictive charts ... which is not the same as saying that ALL charts are predictive)
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 1199
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 28, 2003 - 03:48 pm: |
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Midge
Your lack of clarity is noted
Claudius (keen to understand that which is clearly stated, and noting that one example would have been worth a thousand words)
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shutty
Member
Username: shutty
Post Number: 1
Registered: 12-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 28, 2003 - 04:29 pm: |
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Claudius,
(be nice to me I'm new)
As it has been said many times before it's a "numbers" game. That is system trading.
My system picks trends and I've found if I look at the chart and it looks like:
1. the trends has been continuing for sometime
or
2. the chart looks "messy"
...I may not take the trade and I have later kicked myself as it the trend continues.
I have considered accepting signals as they come without looking at the chart but I still need to have a peek.
I don't really understand this predictive thingy your on about. Yes, I've found by backtesting that if I buy in a trend I get better results, that's it. If you want to call that predictive, OK!
I join in on a trend and my loss is less then my gains by using (dare I say it!) an "envelope" :-)
I remember a while ago reading here a fantastic post by spider post No. 790 on trends and I'm amazed there are no stars next to the post:
http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/35933/110159.html#POST17959
...never mind I'll stick a 5'er in!
Cheers Shutty
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 1200
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 28, 2003 - 05:04 pm: |
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Hello Shutty
You said :-
As it has been said many times before it's a "numbers" game. That is system trading. (C - I agree)
My system picks trends and I've found if I look at the chart and it looks like:
1. the trends has been continuing for sometime
or
2. the chart looks "messy"
...I may not take the trade and I have later kicked myself as it the trend continues.
I have considered accepting signals as they come without looking at the chart but I still need to have a peek.
I don't really understand this predictive thingy your on about. Yes, I've found by backtesting that if I buy in a trend I get better results, that's it. If you want to call that predictive, OK! .... (C - If a chart is giving any indication whatsoever that it is pointing in a particular direction ... that makes it predictive ... I suggest ... and if enough similar charts (or patterns within charts) go where they seem to be pointing on enough occasions that makes them both predictive and tradable, even though some of the predictive signs & charts may fail ... the reason being that enough succeed to generate profits)
I join in on a trend and my loss is less then my gains by using (dare I say it!) an "envelope" :-) (C - could you illustrate with a chart how your envelope works?)
I remember a while ago reading here a fantastic post by spider post No. 790 on trends and I'm amazed there are no stars next to the post:
http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/35933/110159.html#POST17959
...never mind I'll stick a 5'er in! (C - I agree)
Claudius
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stevo
Member
Username: stevo
Post Number: 101
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 28, 2003 - 07:03 pm: |
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Claudius - the cavalry has arrived. Good to see you posting here Shutty. Claudius just likes a good "discussion"!
Stevo looks up from the keyboard and quickly picks up his trusty Macquarie Dictionary.
Predict To foretell; prophesy. To foretell the future.
Please Claudius tell us the future!
Probability a likelihood or chance of something.
Got to go - I predict that I will be eating pizza in the next 5 minutes. It is probable that I will eat too much.
Steve
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shutty
Member
Username: shutty
Post Number: 2
Registered: 12-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 28, 2003 - 10:17 pm: |
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Steve,
> the cavalry has arrived
LOL!!
Claudius,
> If a chart is giving any indication whatsoever that it is pointing in a particular direction ... that makes it predictive ... I suggest ...
OK I see, but not too concerned as it's built-in to the strategy.
More of a concern is that I can predict, the price will hit one of my stops. Either my profit, max loss or trailing stop. With about a 50/50 chance of the outcome being greater or less than my entry price.
About posting a chart, I can post all the info but I can predict that you won't be happy with it. Not only you but whoever. If you want to run a system you need to test it out yourself and get your numbers the way you like 'em. As Stevo mentioned on another thread "It can be quite difficult to trade someone else's strategy".
Basically I use a Linear Regression Slope to enter, a % profit exit, a % max loss and a Lowest Low Value over a period as a trailing stop.
Cheers Shutty
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 140
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 28, 2003 - 10:26 pm: |
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Hi Claudius
I'm not sure whether you read Colin's daily diary - in his latest edition, he wrote, amongst other things that ...
"The Dow Industrial Average rally has lost momentum and we may see a test of the new 10000 support level. ... The intermediate trend is up. The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9000 will signal reversal."
So I'll try to apply this type of analysis to assist you with CSL - please note my use and knowledge of TA is rudimentary and I'm sure experienced chartists will scoff at my simplistic analysis, however, it may generate some further discussion ...
1. The trend (primary, if you like) since June 2003 is up
2. The trend (intermediate, if you like) since September 2003 is flat/ranging
3. A fall below 15.60ish could signal reversal in the short-intermediate term, whilst a rise above 18.60ish could signal a continuation of the primary up trend.
So, I'm not saying I can PREDICT CSL's future price, HOWEVER, if I were trading CSL in the longer term I'd wait for those price levels to be breached and then decide to go short or long, respectively.
Best wishes
Dean
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 1202
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 28, 2003 - 11:05 pm: |
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Thanks Dean
I appreciate your serious attempt to deal with a factual example ...
I believe one of our forum members believes that breaks up and through the MACD zero line are (for him) tradable ...
Perhaps what I need if that system is valid is several such break throughs with a decent percentage of them giving rise to tradable gains ...
In this way I would not be pinning my hopes on any one such pattern, but rather on the potential of a group of such patterns to have more successes than failures ... or at least enough successes to give a long enough ride to outweigh the seemingly inevitable failures ...
Thus I should make no specific prediction on CSL but rather be aware of the parameters of success and failure ...
Your message has provided such parameters and I thank you for it ...
So now the question is ... does a group of MACD moves above zero provide the basis for a valid and profitable system, and if so is this signal more or less fruitful than others which might be chosen ...
Would the author of that proposed system please comment?
Meanwhile the Imperial Treasury will be hard at work maintaining yet another database on entry signals ...
Never let it be said that your Emperor is lazy, even if he is as some suggest, demonstrably thick and stupid!
Dean, I thank you again, for having been one of my most persistent and helpful followers.
With Most Cordial Imperial Good Wishes
Claudius
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 1203
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 28, 2003 - 11:17 pm: |
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Stevo
Thanks for the definitions ...
Shutty
My request for an example chart showing how you have detected an entry signal was so that I could understand exactly how and when you have a trigger ...
Understanding does not mean I would seek to trade the way you do, but I do believe that an open mind and good examples can lead to fruitful discussion ... something that some of my other correspondents seem to doubt.
While none of us may wish to change our systems overnight, he who believes he has learned everything there is to know may have failed to learn the very thing that would add still greater strength to what he already may have.
To me understanding how others do things is the key to understanding how better to do things myself ... and I am reluctant to admit that my present state of knowledge is as far as I am ever likely to go ... if others have reached that stage I am keen to understand (a) why and (b) why their minds are now closed ... if they are closed, and (c) where any open mindedness they still have is pointing them.
With Very Best Good Wishes
Claudius
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shutty
Member
Username: shutty
Post Number: 3
Registered: 12-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 29, 2003 - 07:22 am: |
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Claudius,
> My request for an example chart showing how you have detected an entry signal was so that I could understand exactly how and when you have a trigger ...
For many there is great importance placed on the entry trigger but I've found once you start to test your ideas out, it plays a small part compared to the exits.
> I am reluctant to admit that my present state of knowledge is as far as I am ever likely to go ... if others have reached that stage I am keen to understand
Same here. In quiet times I think of possible improvements I can try out. I enjoy the challenge.
An example of this is I haven't liked using a fixed set of stocks for any backtesting. In the past I have used the current days XAO list but I have finally found a reliable way to pick out the top 500 (by turnover) *PER DAY* for the past x number of years. Great! :-)
Here is an example of the value of Top200 turnover stocks since 1999. Check out the Tech boom and the drop in turnover following it.
To your points:
> b) why their minds are now closed
Not closed ...maybe someone else can answer that!
> (c) where any open mindedness they still have is pointing them.
Improving system and execution of it.
Here is a few trades on PMP. Green up triangle = buy next day. Red down triangle = sell next day.
The entry is simply a long, a medium and a short term trend ie: monthly, weekly and daily. I just happen to use 3 Linear Regressions but you could use your favourite filter ie: Momentum. Higher Highs, a set of moving averages...
Cheers Shutty
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